Trends and Patterns in Birth Rates

Explain trends and patterns in birth rates, nativity increase and mortality, infant mortality rates, fertility rates and life expectations in the different regions of the world. World population has grown very rapidly after the first billion was reached in 1825. After that, as shown in text-fig1, it took 100 years to add the second billion (1825 – 1930), 30 years to add the third billion (1930 – 1960), 15 years to add the fourth one (1960 – 1975), 12 years to add the fifth one (1975 – 1987), 12 years to add the sixth billion (1987 – 1999). Currently, the world population number equals to 6,5 billion people.

Global population is growing rapidly: last year it grew by almost 80 billion people, while 3 billion people are entering in their reproductive years. Up to 95 % of population growth is taking place in LEDCs. However, the world popu- lation growth is going to stabilize at 9,1 billion by around 2050 – 2080. This big and rapid increase in population number will create many challenges to the world: in fact, it will create a great pressure on governments that have to provide for their people, issues to the environment because more cities and industries will be needed, the risk of famine and malnutrition will increase.

Highest growth rate are found in Africa, while lowest growth rate are found in Europe and North America. Currently, developing countries have higher birth rates than developed countries; this is one of the reasons why the world population is located mainly in LEDCs. Developing countries have higher birth rates because of: • A greater population base; • Many parents will decide tu have many children because of the infant mortality rate; • Workers are needed in the farms and children represent a source; • Cultural and religious factors;

On the other hand, developed countries have lower birth rates because of: • It’s expensive to look after large families; • More women decide to concentrate on their job; • Young people use to get marry later; • There is more information about sexuality and contraceptives are more used; Fertility rates are high in regions belonging to Africa (such as Niger, 51. 6 births per 1000 women per year, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 42. 63,Kenya 33,64), Middle East (such as Afghanistan, 45. 46, Oman, 35. 26, Iraq, 30. 27).

Conversely, almost all the European countries, except Albania and Iceland, have below – replacement fertility rate. This phenomenon occurs when birth rates are lower than birth rate. Italy (8. 36 births per 1000 population), Germany (8. 18), Spain (9,28) may be considered as examples. The same phenomenon occurs is Asia in countries such as China (13, 71 births per 1000 population, 1. 8 children per woman), where the government has intervened through particular laws to reduce the population number, or Japan (7,87 births per 1000 population, 1. 7 children per woman). pic] Text – fig. 2: Map showing birth rates in each country of the world (approximately, how many children are born per woman). [http://commons. wikimedia. org/wiki/File:Fertility_rate_world_map_2. png] At the global scale, mortality rate in MEDCs is much lower than the mortality rate of LEDCs, as well as life expectancy. This is a consequence of better nutrition, healthcare, another kind of culture, environmental conditions. For example, the United Kingdom has a death rate of 10. 09 deaths per 1000 persons or Spain has a mortality rate of 8. 2 deaths per 1000 persons. Although the improvements in food supplies, water and sanitation the birth rate still remain high in the developing countries. Furthermore, infectious diseases are more likely to be found in LEDCs, such as cholera and gastroenteritis (waterborne) or river blindness and malaria (vector-borne). These disease may be fatal in countries in which healthcare has not improved that much and where hospital are inefficient. The ten countries with the highest death rate, according to the 2009 CIA World Factbook, Swaziland (Africa, 30. 3 death per 1000 persons), Angola (Africa, 24. 08), Lesotho (Africa, 22. 20), Sierra Leone (Africa, 21. 91), Zambia (Africa, 21. 24), Liberia (Africa, 20. 73), Mozambique (Africa, 20. 07), Afghanistan (Asia, 19. 18), Djibouti (Africa, 19. 10) and Central African Republic (Africa, 17. 84). The 8 causes of death more diffuse are, according the World Health Organization(2002): • Ischaemic heart disease • Celebrovascular disease • HIV/AIDS • Tuberculosis • Trachea/bronchus/lung cancers • Malaria • Malnutrition [pic]

Text-fig3 : Map showing death rates in each country of the world (approximately, how many people die per 1000 persons). [http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/File:Death_rate_world_map. PNG] Infant Mortality rate (IMR) indicates the number of children death under one year of age per 1000 live births. In the past, IMR reached levels really high, but rates have declined a lot, especially in the West part of the world. Currently, high IMR are found only in the poorest countries, such as Angola (180 babies death per 1000 live births), Sierra Leone (154), Afghanistan (152).

The Life Expectancy of a country is linked to its birth rate. Obviously, MEDCs have a higher life expectancy. It varies from over 80 years of life in rich countries (such as Japan, Sweden, France.. ) to under 40 years in countries as Zambia, Angola or Swaziland (32 years! ). The reason for a low life expectancy in many of these African countries is the presence of fatal diseases, such as HIV/AIDS. Developing countries would expect to see a higher life expectancy in the future thanks to better food supplies, clean water and healthy houses.

However, many countries’ life expectancy fall down between 1970 and 2005, such as Zambia (from 50 to 39 years) while in most of the countries life expectancy shoot up (e. g. Myanmar, from 53 to 60 years). Historically, while at first countries belonging to the developed and developing part of the world had the same life expectancy (24 years, 1000 AD), later, the western part of the world developed in many fronts and the gap between life expectancy in MEDCs and LEDCs became enormous, especially at the beginning of the 20th century, when LEDCs’ life expectancy was still similar to the initial one (26 years).

Bibliography: • ‘’Planet Geography’’ – S. Codrington 2010, 6th edition • ‘’Geography for the IB diploma’’ – G. Nagle and B. Cooke • http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Infant_mortality • http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Mortality_rate • http://www. nationmaster. com/graph/peo_bir_rat-people-birth-rate • http://www. ezega. com/News/NewsDetails. aspx? Page=news&NewsID=1355 • http://www. scalloway. org. uk/popu6. htm ———————– Text – fig. 1 : Graph showing the past population growth since the first billion was added (1825) and the prediction for the future growth.

It also shows that the most part of the current population lives in LEDCs and in the future the situation will not probably change. [http://www. vialattea. net/esperti/php/risposta. php? num=11870] Text-fig4: Map showing IMR in each country of the world (approximately, how many babies die per 1000 live births). [http://commons. wikimedia. org/wiki/File:Infant_mortality_rate_world_map. PNG] Text-fig. 4: Diagram showing life expectancy in Asia, Africa and Europe from 1950 to 2010. [http://www. ezega. com/News/NewsDetails. aspx? Page=news&NewsID=1355]